greece hourglass Patrick Pleul/ZumaPress

أوروبا والفصل الأخير

نيويورك ــ يواصل قادة الاتحاد الأوروبي ممارسة لعبة حافة الهاوية مع الحكومة اليونانية. فرغم أن اليونان قطعت شوطاً يتجاوز النصف كثيراً في تلبية مطالب دائنيها، تستمر ألمانيا وغيرها من دائني اليونان في مطالبة البلاد بالموافقة على برنامج أثبت فشله، ولم يتصور إمكانية أو ضرورة تنفيذه سوى قِلة قليلة من أهل الاقتصاد.

إن التحول في موقف اليونان المالي من العجز الأولي الضخم إلى الفائض يكاد يكون غير مسبوق على الإطلاق، ولكن مطالبة البلاد بتحقيق فائض أولي بنسبة 4.5% من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي أمر متطرف وغير معقول. من المؤسف أنه عندما أدرجت "الترويكا" ــ المفوضية الأوروبية، والبنك المركزي الأوروبي، وصندوق النقد الدولي ــ هذا الطلب غير المسؤول لأول مرة في البرنامج المالي الدولي المخصص لليونان، لم يكن لدى السطات في البلاد أي خيار غير الإذعان.

الواقع أن حماقة الاستمرار في متابعة هذا البرنامج أصبحت الآن صارخة بشكل خاص، نظراً لانخفاض الناتج المحلي الإجمالي بنسبة 25%، والذي تحملته اليونان منذ بداية الأزمة. ومن الواضح أن الترويكا أساءت الحكم على تأثير البرنامج الذي فرضته على الاقتصاد الكلي. فوفقاً لتوقعاتهم المنشورة، كانت الترويكا تعتقد أن خفض الأجور وقبول تدابير التقشف الأخرى من شأنه أن يزيد صادرات اليونان فيعود الاقتصاد سريعاً إلى النمو. كما تصورت أيضاً أن أول إعادة هيكلة للدين من شأنها أن تؤدي إلى استدامة الدين.

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