希腊以及反紧缩政策的限制

发自剑桥——紧缩政策已经穷途末路了吗?上月在戴维营举行的八国集团(G8)会议上,由德国主导的针对欧元区南部问题成员国的紧缩措施遭到了强力抵制。同样,对于那些认为欧洲必须逐步为其负债累累的公共部门找到出路,而不是硬要在短时间内符合财政教条规定的人来说,最近的法国总统大选结果堪称一记强心针。但我们也无法保证希腊新选出的中右翼新民主党——该党倾向于遵守(欧盟针对)该国的援助条件——有能力去组建一个多数派政府。

相比之下,美国虽然也拥有巨额财政赤字,但自2007-2009年金融危机后一直在追求扩张性以及以增长为目标的宏观经济政策。因此如果用美国的温和增长与欧洲的无增长作对比的话,前者的政策调节效果显然比后者的紧缩措施表现更佳。

但问题并不是选择扩张或者紧缩那么简单。宏观经济政策会以一种微妙却有力,而且鲜有人提到的方式与微观经济现实进行互动。简而言之,虽然同样都是以增长为目的的宏观经济政策,但欧洲的微观经济结构使其无法在欧盟取得与美国一样的效果。

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