اليونان وحدود مناهضة التقشف

كمبريدج ــ هل مات التقشف؟ في اجتماع مجموعة الثماني في كامب ديفيد الشهر الماضي، اصطدم برنامج التقشف الذي تقود ألمانيا محاولات فرضه على دول الجنوب المتعثرة في منطقة اليورو بمقاومة قوية. وعلى نحو مماثل، عززت الانتخابات الرئاسية الأخيرة في فرنسا هؤلاء الذين يزعمون أن أوروبا لابد أن تستعين بالنمو في محاولاتها للخروج من أزمة قطاعها العام المثقل بالديون، بدلاً من استهداف الاستقامة المالية الفورية. وليس هناك ما يضمن قدرة حزب الديمقراطية الجديد من يمين الوسط، والذي يفضل احترام شروط إنقاذ البلاد، على تشكيل حكومة أغلبية.

وعلى النقيض من هذا، لاحقت الولايات المتحدة شكلاً توسعياً داعماً للنمو من سياسات الاقتصاد الكلي منذ أزمة 2007-2009 المالية، على الرغم من العجز الهائل في الموازنة. وحتى الآن، وبالحكم على التعافي المتواضع في الولايات المتحدة في مقابل عدم التعافي في أوروبا، سوف نجد أن أداء تكييف السياسة الأميركية كان أفضل من التقشف الأوروبي.

ولكن مجرد الاختيار بين التوسع والتقشف ليس كل القصة. إن سياسات الاقتصاد الكلي تتفاعل مع واقع الاقتصاد الجزئي على الأرض بطرق دقيقة ولكنها قوية ونادراً ما يعلق عليها أحد. والأمر ببساطة أن بنية الاقتصاد الجزئي في أوروبا تجعل نفس سياسات الاقتصاد الكلي القائمة على النمو أقل فعالية في الاتحاد الأوروبي مقارنة بالولايات المتحدة.

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