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发自纽约—在经历了2007~2009年间的金融危机之后,诸多政策失误又加剧了原本弥漫于全球经济的失衡和风险。各国政府非但没有解决导致金融崩溃以及随后经济衰退所揭示的结构性问题,而是敷衍塞责,最终造就了那些将无可避免地催生下一场危机的重大下行风险。如今危机已然降临,这些风险也变得更加严峻。但不幸的是,即使大衰退已经导致今年的U型复苏化为乌有,在下面十个不祥且危险的趋势之下,一场L型“更大萧条”将在未来十年间降临。
第一个趋势涉及赤字及其必然风险:债务和违约。在这个许多国家公共债务水平已然居高不下甚至无以为继的年代,新型冠状病毒危机的政策对策将导致财政赤字大幅增加——相当于GDP的10%或以上。
更糟糕的是,许多家庭和企业的收入损失意味着私营部门的债务水平也会变得不可持续,并可能引发大规模违约和破产。再加上公共债务水平的飙升,这一切都说明当前的复苏必定比十年前大衰退后的那场复苏更为疲软。
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