delong236_OLIVIER DOULIERYAFP via Getty Images_now hiring sign employment

De grote veranderingen op de arbeidsmarkt

Dec 6, 2021 J. Bradford DeLong

BERKELEY – Ongeveer dertien procent van de laagbetaalde banen in Duitsland zou niet levensvatbaar zijn als de werknemers zouden begrijpen hoe goed hun externe opties in werkelijkheid zijn. Dat is de conclusie van een recent artikel van Benjamin Schoefer, mijn collega hier aan de universiteit van Californië te Berkeley, en zijn co-auteurs Simon Jäger, Christopher Roth en Nina Roussille.

ʻWanneer zij de subjectieve externe opties van werknemers vergelijken met objectieve maatstaven van beloningspremies uit gematchte gegevens van werkgevers en werknemers,ʼ merken zij op, ʻdenken veel werknemers ten onrechte dat hun huidige loon representatief is voor de externe arbeidsmarkt – objectief laagbetaalde (of hoogbetaalde) werknemers zijn overpessimistisch (dan wel te optimistisch) over hun externe opties.ʼ

In gewoon Nederlands is de implicatie dat, indien de onjuiste opvattingen van laagbetaalde werknemers over hoe slecht hun externe mogelijkheden zijn, op de schop zouden worden genomen, de beroeps- en arbeidsmarktsituatie fundamenteel zou veranderen. Hetzelfde fundamentele inzicht is zeker ook van toepassing op de Verenigde Staten, alleen in sterkere mate, omdat het federale minimumloon in de VS in verhouding tot de gemiddelde productiviteit veel lager is dan in Duitsland.

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J. Bradford DeLong

Writing for PS since 2002
238 Commentaries

J. Bradford DeLong is Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He was Deputy Assistant US Treasury Secretary during the Clinton Administration, where he was heavily involved in budget and trade negotiations. His role in designing the bailout of Mexico during the 1994 peso crisis placed him at the forefront of Latin America’s transformation into a region of open economies, and cemented his stature as a leading voice in economic-policy debates.

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Joe Ryan Dec 12, 2021

In industrialized regions, the "jobs = well-being" presumption is being gnawed at from both sides: on the side of supply of jobs by automation and on the side of demand for jobs by people being increasingly willing and able to be more discriminating about job choices. Technology is a factor on both sides.

One implication is that government policy needs to look beyond "jobs" per se. A type of complementary government policy is making outlays to ensure wide availability of basic necessities as entitlements, rather than as something bought using pay from a job.

In the U.S., Medicare would be an example, except of course for its availability being limited. So, the policy issue is to expand its availability.

This point is not new: Medicare is over 50 years old and efforts to expand or complement it (NB: Obamacare) are ongoing. Ditto for other examples: Prof. DeLong mentions child care in the U.S.

But still the point may not be obvious. Prof. DeLong's essay started off in the direction of making it but towards the end seems to mix it with government policy to promote business or purchasing power in general.

To repeat, this (traditional keynesianism) is, by itself, not sufficient, given that its linkage to well-being is limited by shortcomings in provision of public goods and "good jobs." Some outlays need to be more specific, as does Prof. DeLong's conclusion that "workers and entrepreneurs need a great deal more support."
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