Großmeister und globales Wachstum

CAMBRIDGE – Die Weltwirtschaft hinkt aus dem letzten Jahrzehnt und tritt 2010 in ein neues ein. Was wird da die nächste große Antriebskraft des globalen Wachstums sein? Ich wette, dass die „Zehner“ ein Jahrzehnt werden, in dem die künstliche Intelligenz die „Fluchtgeschwindigkeit erreicht“ und anfängt wirtschaftliche Auswirkungen zu zeigen, die mit dem Aufstieg Indiens und Chinas auf einer Stufe stehen.

Zugegebenermaßen ist meine Sichtweise stark von den Geschehnissen in der Welt des Schachs gefärbt, einem Spiel, das ich früher auf professionellem Niveau spielte und immer noch aus der Ferne verfolge. Obwohl es ein Sonderbereich ist, bietet Computerschach sowohl einen Einblick in die Rechnerevolution als auch ein Barometer dafür, wie sich die Menschen daran anpassen könnten.

Ein wenig Geschichte könnte hier weiterhelfen. 1996 und 1997 spielte der Schachweltmeister Garri Kasparow zwei Matches gegen einen IBM-Computer namens „Deep Blue“. Damals dominierte Kasparow das Schachspiel weltweit, ungefähr so wie Tiger Woods – zumindest bis vor Kurzem – das Golfspiel dominierte. Im Duell von 1996 überraschte Deep Blue den Meister, indem er ihn in der ersten Partie schlug. Doch passte sich Kasparow schnell an und nutzte die Schwächen des Computers in der langfristigen strategischen Planung aus, wo seine Urteilskraft und Intuition über das mechanische Zählen des Computers zu siegen schienen.

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