和美元说再见?

剑桥——值此世界金融领袖本月在华盛顿世界银行-国际货币基金组织年会上举行会晤之际,或许他们应该为没有哪种确定的选择能够取代美元成为全球通用货币而感到庆幸。如果欧元已经进入了黄金时段,我们就很可能看到它与美元之间的汇率飙升到2.00以上,而绝不仅是1.65或1.70那么简单,而从现在的情况来看,欧元达到1.65或1.70这个目标指日可待。如果客户有其他的选择,那么无论如何也不能像美国不久前那样给予他们最恶劣的待遇。

过去六年以来,随着美国不断刷新史无前例的贸易赤字,贸易加权的美元价值已经下跌了超过四分之一。由于经济疲软、金融体系不健全和通胀上升引发的严重忧虑,美元长期呈现贬值的走势,而这一点无论目前危机的结果如何都无法改变。而且这还不是全部的问题。

除非银行能找到新资金,而且是大笔的新资金,否则美联储对金融系统的紧急援助计划不太可能经得起考验。 超级富有的主权财产基金有足够的钱来拯救美国的银行,但即便美国的政治体系允许,他们也不太可能愿意在此刻出手相救。相反,随着信贷危机和住宅价格滑落的不断持续,进行大规模抵押贷款援助似乎越来越不可避免,而这种选择或许会花掉美国纳税人上万亿美元。问题是在这么多年美元资产回报低迷之后,全球投资者是否愿意再按照接近目前的利率和汇率来吸纳价值超过万亿的美元债券?

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