欧元区的金规则

伦敦—在很多批评家眼里,欧洲货币联盟看上去极像1913年之前的金本位——在大相径庭的经济体间维系固定汇率。但这样的相似性真的像批评家们所说的那样坏吗?

批评历史金本位的出发点在于塑造信心的制度性力量。完全固定的汇率排除了货币政策的作用,从而导致大规模外部失衡极难消除。而由此带来的负担并不是均匀的,因为赤字国面临着更大的通过通缩调整的压力,相比之下,债权国不得不承受通胀的压力要小一些。

悲观派尤其担心金本位类比和教训。他们预测,未来几年甚至几十年欧洲都将经历低增长。而从政治上说,赤字国的通缩调整过程将十分痛苦和艰难,以至于许多悲观派认为迟早无法持续下去。

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