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Die Schwellenländer sollten auf Gold setzen

CAMBRIDGE – Sind die Zentralbanken der Schwellenländer zu stark in Dollar und zu schwach in Gold investiert? Angesichts einer abflauenden Weltwirtschaft, in der diese Länder wahrscheinlich schon dankbar sind, wenn sie überhaupt Reserven haben, scheint der Zeitpunkt für diese Frage schlecht gewählt. Aber einiges deutet darauf hin, dass ein stärkeres Engagement der Schwellenländer in Gold allen nützen würde und dazu beitragen könnte, dass das internationale Finanzsystem besser funktioniert.

Vorweg möchte ich klarstellen, dass ich nicht zu denen gehöre, die – wie die Verrückten der äußersten amerikanischen Rechten – zum Goldstandard zurückkehren möchten, wo die Länder den Wert ihrer Währungen am Goldpreis ausrichten. Immerhin hat dieser Goldstandard in den 1930ern zum letzten Mal für eine Katastrophe gesorgt, und es gibt keinen Grund zu glauben, dass es diesmal anders kommen würde.

Nein, ich schlage nur vor, dass die Schwellenländer einen erheblichen Anteil ihrer Billionen Dollar an Fremdwährungsreserven (allein China verfügt über offizielle Reserven von 3,3 Billionen Dollar) in Gold reinvestieren. Sogar eine Umschichtung von, sagen wir, 10% ihrer Reserven in Gold würde sie nicht annähernd in die Nähe der vielen reichen Länder bringen, die 60-70% ihrer (zugegeben kleineren) offiziellen Reserven in Gold halten.

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