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Les marchés émergents devraient miser sur l'or

CAMBRIDGE – Les banques centrales des pays émergents connaissent-elles actuellement une surcharge en dollars et une pénurie d'or ? Compte tenu du ralentissement économique mondial, où les marchés émergents sont probablement très reconnaissants envers les réserves qu'ils conservent, cette question peut paraître inopportune. Mais il y a fort à parier qu'une évolution des marchés de l'or sur les marchés émergents dans le sens d'une accumulation de l'or aiderait le système financier international à fonctionner plus en douceur et profiterait à tout le monde.

Soyons clairs, je ne fais pas partie de ceux (en général des Américains cinglés d'extrême-droite), qui favorisent un retour à l'étalon-or, où les pays fixent la valeur de leur monnaie relativement à celle de l'or. Après tout, le dernier règne de l'étalon-or a connu une fin tragique dans les années 1930 et il n'y a aucune raison de croire qu'un retour à ce régime pourrait produire un résultat différent.

Non, je propose simplement que les marchés émergents convertissent en or une part importante des milliers de milliards de dollars dans les réserves en devises qu'ils détiennent actuellement : la Chine à elle seule a des réserves officielles de 3,3 mille milliards de dollars. Même convertir par exemple jusqu'à 10% de leurs réserves en or ne les rapprocherait pas des nombreux pays riches qui détiennent 60% à 70% de leurs réserves officielles en or, certes plus petites.

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