Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. He is co-author of This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton University Press, 2011) and author of The Curse of Cash (Princeton University Press, 2016).
发自剑桥——新兴市场央行是否存在着过度倚重美元而轻视黄金的问题?眼下全球经济放缓,新兴市场国家对自己的所有储备都格外珍惜,这个时候问这些问题似乎不合时宜。但新兴市场转而买入黄金会有助于国际金融体系运作更为顺畅,并使各方受益。
必须明确的是,我并不和那些赞成回到金本位制(国家将自身货币的价值与黄金挂钩)的人——通常美国的极右翼疯子——站在同一阵线。毕竟金本位制度在1930年代走向了灾难性的终结,也没有理由相信回归这一制度会令情况变得有何不同。
同时,我不是提倡新兴市场要将其当前持有的数万亿美元外汇储备(仅中国就拥有3.3万亿美元的官方储备)中的大部分换成黄金。即便是要换,比如将外汇储备的10%换成黄金,也难以让它们向那些许多官方外汇储备(诚然较规模较小)中黄金比例占到60~70%的富裕国家靠拢。
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