世界的不和谐之声

巴黎—在雄篇巨著《大外交》一书中,亨利·基辛格有点天真烂漫地写道,1814—1815年维也纳会议之后的国际实力平衡体系产生了后来所谓的“欧洲协调”(Concert of Europe)。基辛格说,拿破仑战争后,“不但出现了现实平衡,还出现了道德平衡。实力和公正处于显现出一片大和谐。”当然,1914年夏天爆发的一战打破了这一协调。

如今,在经历了野蛮的20世纪上半叶、短暂的冷战双极格局和1989年后美国单一超级大国阶段后,世界正在再一次寻找新的国际秩序。类似欧洲协调的安排会全球化吗?

不幸的是,全球不和谐的可能性增加了。一个显而易见的原因是缺少一个明确的、被广泛接受的国际仲裁者。美国的实力最强,但不太愿意——也缺少能力——执行这一功能。联合国最能体现国际秩序原则,但一直都处于莫衷一是和无法胜任的状态。

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