危机之后的全球化

华盛顿特区——

世界经济刚刚经历了一场严重衰退,金融市场动荡不安,大量财富灰飞烟灭,工业生产与全球贸易出现下降。根据国际劳工组织的测算,由于不断恶化的就业形势,估计全球的失业人口要比2007年增加3900万到6100万人。到今年年底,全球失业人口将创新高,达到2.19亿-2.41亿之间。

与此同时,尽管经济复苏的曙光隐约初现,但全球实际工资的增速在继2008年大幅放缓之后,预期将在2009年进一步下滑。根据目前掌握的53个国家的数据,平均实际工资增幅的中值增速已从2007年的4.3%降至2008年的1.4%。世界银行发出警告说,在原有生活于全球贫困线(每天1.25美元)以下的14亿人(2005年估算值)这一基础之上,将另有8900万人于危机之后陷入同样的困境之中。

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