O Nevoeiro da Desordem

MUNIQUE – Que ameaça emergente estará a escapar ao mundo neste preciso momento? Depois de um ano verdadeiramente terrível para a paz e segurança internacionais, esta pergunta será ainda mais importante para os líderes, analistas, e meios de comunicação que se reúnem esta semana na 51ª Conferência de Segurança de Munique (CSM).

Há um ano, a guerra na Síria e a crise na Ucrânia eram os desafios que preocupavam a comunidade internacional. Mas, provavelmente, muitos dos participantes na CSM do ano passado admitiriam agora que não consideraram a verdadeira gravidade destes acontecimentos – para não falar naquilo que poderá vir a acontecer.

Apenas alguns meses depois, a rápida escalada e regionalização de ambas as crises, em simultâneo com desenvolvimentos noutros locais, levou muitos observadores à proclamação de que 2014 marcava o início de uma era menos pacífica e mais caótica nas relações internacionais.

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