无序之雾

慕尼黑—哪个正在浮现的威胁是目前世界还没有注意到的?在经历了国际和平安全的一个货真价实的恐怖之年后,这一问题对于在本周参加第51届慕尼黑安全会议(Munich Security Conference,MSC)领导人、分析家和媒体来说变得无比重要。

一年前,叙利亚战争和乌克兰危机是最令国际社会头疼的挑战。但去年MSC的许多与会者如今可能承认,当时他们没能预料到这些事件的真正能量——更不用说可能的后续发展了。

几个月后,两场危机的迅速升级和地区化,以及其他地区局势的发展,让许多观察者宣布2014年标志着国际关系和平因素减少、混乱因素增加的时期的开端。

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