El déficit tecnológico del calentamiento global

COPENHAGUE – El enfoque que tenemos en la actualidad para solucionar el calentamiento global no va a funcionar. No está bien formulado en lo económico, porque los impuestos al carbono costarán una fortuna y ayudarán poco, y es defectuoso en lo político, porque las negociaciones para reducir las emisiones de CO2 se volverán cada vez más tensas y divisivas. E incluso si no se está de acuerdo con ambas afirmaciones, también presenta problemas en lo tecnológico.

Varios países están definiendo ambiciosas metas de reducción de emisiones de carbono con anterioridad a las negociaciones globales que se realizarán en diciembre en Copenhague para reemplazar el Protocolo de Kioto. Imaginemos que finalmente el mundo acuerda un objetivo ambicioso. Digamos que decidimos reducir las emisiones de CO2  en tres cuartos para el año 2100, al tiempo que mantenemos un crecimiento razonable. Aquí está el problema tecnológico: para cumplir esta meta, las fuentes de energía no basadas en carbono tendrían que ser en el año 2100 2,5 veces el nivel de consumo energético total del mundo en el año 2000.

Estas cifras fueron calculadas por los economistas Chris Green e Isabel Galiana de la Universidad McGill. Sus estudios prueban que parea enfrentar el calentamiento global de manera eficaz se requiere nada menos que una revolución tecnológica. No estamos tomando seriamente este reto. Si seguimos el camino actual, el desarrollo tecnológico no será lo suficientemente significativo para hacer que las fuentes de energía no basadas en carbono sean competitivas con respecto a los combustibles fósiles en cuanto a precio y eficacia.

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