Réchauffement climatique, technologie en déficit

COPENHAGUE – L’approche envisagée actuellement pour résoudre le réchauffement climatique n'est pas bonne. Elle est défectueuse sur le plan économique, car la taxe sur le carbone coûtera une fortune pour pas grand chose. Elle est aussi défectueuse sur le plan politique, car les négociations pour réduire les émissions de CO2 seront de plus en plus tendues et sujettes à discorde. Vous pouvez certes contester ces deux points, mais pas le fait qu’elle est, en outre, défectueuse sur le plan technologique.

Nombre de pays se fixent en ce moment des objectifs de réduction du carbone en vue des négociations mondiales qui auront lieu à Copenhague en décembre pour remplacer le protocole de Kyoto. Imaginons que les participants finissent par tomber d’accord sur un objectif ambitieux. Disons qu'ils décident de réduire les émissions de gaz à effet de serre aux trois quarts d’ici à 2100 tout en maintenant une croissance raisonnable. C’est là que réside le problème technologique : pour atteindre cet objectif, il faudrait que le taux, effarant, des sources d’énergie mondiale sans carbone soit 2,5 fois plus fort en 2100 que le taux de consommation d’énergie totale de l’an 2000.

Les économistes Chris Green et  Isabel Galiana de l'université McGill ont calculé ces chiffres. Leur recherche prouve qu’il faut maîtriser la révolution technologique pour faire face au réchauffement de la planète avec efficacité. Or, nous ne prenons pas ce défi assez au sérieux. Si nous continuons sur notre voie, les avancées technologiques sur les sources d’énergie sans carbone ne seront pas assez importantes pour concurrencer les carburants fossiles, en terme de prix et d’efficacité.

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