أين ذهب الانحباس الحراري العالمي؟

سياتل ــ على مدى الربع الأخير من القرن العشرين، اتجه متوسط درجة الحرارة على سطح الأرض نحو الارتفاع بشكل تدريجي ثابت. ثم توقف ذلك الاتجاه فجأة وعلى نحو أدهش حتى العلماء. فقد استمر تركيز ثاني أكسيد الكربون في الغلاف الجوي للأرض في الارتفاع؛ والواقع أنه أصبح اليوم أعلى مما كان عليه لقرون من الزمان. ورغم هذا فإن كوكب الأرض لم يصبح أكثر سخونة على مدى السنوات الخمس عشرة الأخيرة وفقاً للطريقة التقليدية لقياس الانحباس الحراري العالمي.

ولكن ما الذي يفسر هذا التحول غير المتوقع للأحداث، وماذا يعني بالنسبة لسياسة المناخ في المستقبل؟

إن توقف ارتفاع درجات حرارة السطح حقيقي. ومن الممكن أن نلاحظه في دراسات مسح سطح البحر وفي قياسات الأقمار الصناعية لطبقة التروبوسفير. ولكن السبب وراء هذا ليس أن الانبعاثات الغازية المسببة للانحباس الحراري العالمي لم تعد تغير مناخ الأرض؛ بل إن حرارة السطح مقياس رديء للانحباس الحراري الناتج عن أنشطة بشرية. والواقع أن ما توصل إليه العلماء هو أن الحرارة الزائدة التي يتم توليدها ذهبت إلى المحيطات الأكثر عمقاً بدلاً من رفع درجة حرارة السطح.

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