La fin des pâtes ?

PRAGUE – Le discours sur le réchauffement climatique abonde d’histoires terrifiantes depuis longtemps. Déjà en 1997, Al Gore nous disait que du fait du réchauffement climatique, les vents d’El Niño deviendraient plus intenses et plus violents. Cela n’a pas été le cas. Greenpeace et tant d’autres nous disent depuis des années que nous allons connaître des ouragans plus violents. En fait, depuis six ans, l’énergie globale des ouragans est à son seuil le plus bas depuis les années 70, tandis que les Etats-Unis traversent leur plus longue période sans ouragan sévère (Sandy était une « super-tempête » et non un ouragan, lorsqu’elle a frappé la côte vulnérable de l’est américain en octobre dernier.)

Mais les craintes ne s’arrêtent pas là. En 2004, la World Wildlife Fund avait annoncé la disparition des ours polaires pour la fin du siècle, précisant que le désastre débuterait en Baie d’Hudson d’où ils cesseraient de se reproduire avant 2012. Les ours se reproduisent toujours. Et nombres d’histoires circulent sur l’arrivée du paludisme en Europe et dans le Vermont en conséquence du réchauffement climatique. Mais là encore, les preuves contredisent ces craintes ; en fait, les décès dus au paludisme ont chuté de 25% depuis dix ans.

On peut comprendre que les experts, inquiets du réchauffement climatique et frustrés par le peu d’attention politique ou de solution, utilisent l’exagération comme moyen aisé pour capter l’attention. Le problème est que lorsque ces histoires terrifiantes ne se vérifient pas dans le temps, les gens deviennent moins enclins à entendre les arguments même les plus raisonnables sur le réchauffement climatique. Car le scepticisme autour du réchauffement climatique a tendance à augmenter, et non le contraire, avec l’alarmisme grandissant.

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