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纽约—2月份，我警告说，今年任何数量的可预见危机，即“白天鹅”，都可能出发大规模全球动荡。我指出：
“……美国和伊朗军事冲突已成，有可能很快就会升级；中国即将爆发病毒，并可能演变为全球大流行；网络战争还在继续；美国国债主要持有人正在采取多元化战略；民主党总统初选正在暴露特朗普反对派阵营的裂痕并已让计票流程令人质疑；美国和四大修正主义力量之间的对立正在升级；而气候变化和其他环境趋势的真实世界成本不断增加。”
2月以来，在中国爆发的COVID-19确实演变为大流行，证实了我们一早做出的警告——冠状病毒将给全球经济带来严重后果。由于大规模刺激计划的作用，2020大衰退（Greater Recession）没有变成大萧条（Greater Depression）。但全球经济仍然脆弱，即便受到严重抑制的产出和需求发生V型复苏，也维持不了一两个季度，因为经济活动水平低迷。
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