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Economics

إعادة النظر في بجعات 2020 البيضاء

Jul 29, 2020 Nouriel Roubini

نيويورك ــ في شهر فبراير/شباط، حَـذَّرتُ من أن أي عدد من الأزمات المتوقعة ــ "البجعات البيضاء" ــ قد يشعل شرارة اضطرابات عالمية هائلة هذا العام. وقد لاحظت:

"أن الولايات المتحدة وإيران وقعت بينهما بالفعل مواجهة عسكرية من المرجح أن تتصاعد قريبا؛ وأن الصين واقعة في قبضة فاشية فيروسية قد تتحول إلى جائحة عالمية؛ وأن الحرب السيبرانية مستمرة؛ وأن كبار حاملي سندات الخزانة الأميركية يلاحقون استراتيجية التنويع؛ وأن الانتخابات التمهيدية الرئاسية الديمقراطية تكشف عن انقسامات في معسكر معارضة ترمب وقد بدأت بالفعل تلقي بظلال من الشك على عمليات فرز الأصوات؛ وأن الخصومات بين الولايات المتحدة وأربع قوى تحريفية تتصاعد؛ وأن تكاليف تغير المناخ وغير ذلك من الاتجاهات البيئية في العالم الحقيقي تتزايد".

منذ فبراير/شباط، تحولت فاشية مرض فيروس كورونا 2019 (كوفيد-19) إلى جائحة حقا، مما أثبت صحة تحذيراتنا في وقت مبكر من أن فيروس كورونا سيخلف عواقب وخيمة على الاقتصاد العالمي. بفضل سياسات التحفيز الضخمة، لم يتحول الركود الأعظم في عام 2020 إلى كساد أعظم. لكن الاقتصاد العالمي يظل هشا، وحتى إذا حدث التعافي السريع (على هيئة حرف V) بعد كساد الإنتاج والطلب الشديد، فقد يدوم التعافي لمدة ربع واحد أو اثنين، نظرا لانخفاض مستوى النشاط الاقتصادي.

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Nouriel Roubini

Writing for PS since 2007
172 Commentaries

Nouriel Roubini, Professor Emeritus of Economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business, is Chief Economist at Atlas Capital Team, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, Co-Founder of TheBoomBust.com, and author of MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, and How to Survive Them (Little, Brown and Company, 2022). He is a former senior economist for international affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration and has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank. His website is NourielRoubini.com, and he is the host of NourielToday.com.

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robert scollay Aug 3, 2020

Gobsmacked by the apparent lack of irony in: "rivalry between the US and four revisionist powers – China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea". Given the trajectory of US international policy under Trump, surely the US now ranks as the most "revisionist" power of all?
- Curtis Carpenter Aug 3, 2020
  
  Perhaps the author, like many of us, cling to the hope that Trump and Trumpism (along with political sycophants like Pompeo and Navarro) are anomalies that will vanish like the coronavirus in November. A hope that, of course, ignores the grim reality that 63 million Americans voted for all this "winning."
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Robert Wolff Jul 30, 2020

As an operational planner for the US Army the last 15 years before my retirement, the best teacher based on successes and failures was the requirement of future planners to issue "Lessons Learned."

Sometimes there were bragging points, but sometimes the Truth required self-effacement for our failures to plan correctly.

"White Swans" are expected events because they are in the statistical majority. "Black Swan Events" are not necessarily unconceived, just usually dismissed as low priority. But military planning considers all possibilities and Black Swan Events are some of those possibilities.

In risk versus reward planning, a devastating Black Swan Event deserves more attention than the possibility of a White Swan Event that will have minimal impact. Military Intelligence is well known for considering any possible contingence, including expected responses by the Enemy to US Military action, and beyond that every cause-effect reaction as We enter the battlefield. Contingency planning considers not just White Swan events, but also "Worst Case" Black Swan Events and how they play out in a tit-for-tat against the enemy's possible reactions. Studying their probable actions includes HUMINT - studying the past history of their leaders and how they have historically responded to provocations by their Enemies.

Every contingency must be planned for, and the Operational Readiness of US Troops to respond to each contingency must be prepared for immediate execution.

I have a friend, a famous epidemiologist with whom I grew us, and we are discussing Pandemic Planning seriously as a national functional necessity, and its funding, much like US Military Planning.

The US has the most prepared Military in the World. Why not they most prepared Pandemic planners and reaction infrastructure and operational action officers?
- Curtis Carpenter Aug 3, 2020
  
  Such planning can't fill the vacuum left by an absence of political probity, courage and will. The repeated failures of U.S. military adventures over the last sixty years seems an adequate demonstration of that.
  
  And wasn't there a federal pandemic response plan of some sort?
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edward.david31 Jul 30, 2020

It may be that all of these issues (and many more) will escalate to existential crises for one primary reason: Humans have run up against a wall of technology that has evolved into a form that they are in no way equipped to handle. Others have noted that humans are eminently "hackable" and the modern, seductive, rabbit-hole style of social media and algorithms, weaponized by the immoral, which are distorting and infantilising the population, making them incapable of coping with issues that require even basic acts of social conscience, self-interest and survival. As advertisers have always known, the way to the heart is through the id, and people invariably are helpless captives to their emotions. This regression (childishness) is epidemic and everyone seems in some way an extremist, or radicalized to the point that sober and adult thought, reasoning, and reactions are now almost non-existent. I mean, the U.S. elected Trump, not because they were hoodwinked, or wanted to "shake things up", but for the simple reason that he was just like them. An infant, entitled and run amok.
- Curtis Carpenter Aug 3, 2020
  
  I think the existential crises is already upon us but, like the frog in the water being brought to a boil, we would prefer to ignore it given the effort it would take to jump out of the pot.
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- Robert Wolff Jul 31, 2020
  
  It all depends on the aims of Leadership, which we elect in America. Their Mission may be popular, and the Objectives to accomplish their Mission may be popular but, like Trump they may have failed to develop the proper Tactics and Program Directives and Organization to achieve their Objectives and Mission.
  
  Don't deny the average American voter votes mostly on their hopes and dreams, and is therefore vulnerable to demagoguery.
  
  But this failure of the "hoodwinked" electorate only leads to the necessity of the two Political Parties (Democrat/Republican) to stop their appeal to Emotionalism and come to Rational conclusions as to how the American State should be politically run.
  
  Neither the Republican nor the Democratic Party is very interested in a rational foreign policy and rational domestic policy, only in pulling in enough campaign money to pay the American Press for supporting their platforms.
  
  It is extremely doubtful under the current democratic system of voting that our Political Leaders will be elected by any rational principles, only by the emotions they can stir up among the American People through paying the Main Stream Media to emotionalize the necessity of their Party winning, and ruling the US Government.
  - Curtis Carpenter Aug 3, 2020
    
    Somehow, I don't think the military paradigm has much to offer to the problems that beset our very divided country. As von Moltke observed, "no plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first contact with the main hostile force" -- an observation that for one thing depends heavily on knowing (or at least claiming to know) who the hostile force IS.
    
    And I note that there is one large segment of our population that asserts with regularity that "government is the problem" -- that is, Moltke's "hostile force/" Arrayed to deprive us of our liberty, yet at the same time charged with making our plans, defining our objectives and dictating our tactics...
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  - edward.david31 Jul 31, 2020
    
    There are many key phrases that when used pejoratively signify to me a dumbed-down, indoctrinated, and semi-conspiratorial way of thinking. "Main-stream media" is one of them. Please make an effort to understand the importance of the fourth estate, and how it has served democracies quite well for at least 2 hundred years. Your press, like your democracy, may have flaws, but they far exceed any of the known alternatives. Your press, like your government, demand your attention and participation to keep them representative, honest, and functioning on your behalf. Writing them off as failures amounts to conceding your own failure and defeat. You need to understand what journalistic standards are, and how to recognize media institutions that try to follow them (and ignore all the chum out there).
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- Victor Morris Jul 30, 2020
  
  I agreed with your article up to the last Trump criticism. You see many inteligent people believed the rule of Law, the Constitution and the desire for Judges that ruled Contitutionaly not Politically was lacking. Congressman, Senators and other elected officials swear an oath to uphold the law, to often even at the highest levels of Government they break that oath with immunity. What was revealled about foreign dealing during the Obama term showed in glaring detail this corruption. The choice of trump was aimed to return our Nation to a place were elected officially actualy take their office and oath swearing with honor for the people they serve. Only with civil discourse among Politicians can our Nation Heal, trying to blame the current situation on Trump is a cop out.
  - edward.david31 Jul 31, 2020
    
    All of your critical talking points, upholding the law, the constitution, corruption, have never been more egregiously transgressed than by this current administration. And to add insult to injury it is led by a man who is by every single metric of personal character is a repellent and repugnant human being. Seeing in Trump the solution to anything is an example of incapacity of judgement that I was describing, akin to adolescent acting out and spite.
    Like I've said, the worldwide trope of the Ugly American has deep roots, and to prove that trope Americans elected as their leader the ugliest American of all. But that's the beauty of democracy, right? By all means, if Trump represents your values and beliefs, if you find in him a reflection of you, then vote for him.
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Barry Rosenfeld Jul 30, 2020

Does Roubini still believe that stock markets reflect "investment" behaviour, i.e., decisions made on expectations of risk adjusted earnings, rather than on short-term trading profits? As Keynes noted nearly a century ago, stock markets can be represented as a "whirlpool of investment in a sea of speculation".
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Petey Bee Jul 29, 2020

In terms of emergency actions by the fed/ecb, we now entered the perma-crisis era. Stock and bond valuations atte and will remain first of all a function of the stabilization mechanisms - other considerations, like buybacks, mergers, taxes, and profitability would have to be extralrdibarily good or bad to have a comparable influence.

In the US, resurgence of covid in the vital election state of FL will probably determine the election. With 3 months and change to go, there are several tens of thousands of retirement age Floridians who were infected in the past 6 weeks. Unless the outcome probabilities change, the state's population of older high-turnout voters is in for the rudest reality check about what Trump and the Republicans have brought. I think this will save Biden's otherwise unimpressive candidacy. Having some confidence that Trump will go is actually a major reduction of risk.

I am curious about 2 immediate event factors in the US.

First, how will the "back-to-school" season interact with the epidemic? We have 20 million college students. We have 50 million K-12's. All the schools say they are going to test everyone regularly but we don't have nearly that many tests. (And similar situations exist in many OECD countries).

Second, the Trump admin has raised China tensions qualitatively. We are now conducting economic warfare, attempting to provoke the industrial superpower. Its not the possibility of proxy wars and the economic distortions of an arms race that will do the damage. It is the retaliations in the business arena. The target will not be stocks prices, but domestic employment.
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Avraam Dectis Jul 29, 2020

Hello Everyone!

I am a bit skeptical that revisionist power is an appropriate appellation, in the sense that all countries are trying to improve their relative position.

USA has been on the top of the heap for so long, mostly by historical accident, that it considers that position a birthright and anyone who might threaten it to be malicious.

China has an economy that is now roughly equal in size to that of the USA and in a third of a century will be twice the size of the USA economy, based on current growth disparities. At that point, “revisionism” will be complete.

If we want to stay on the top of the heap, we have to stop running the economy as though it were 1950 and start competing with proper growth policies.

That is the sort of thing a useful economist should be observing. Swans come and go but when you can see a freight train coming straight at you from many miles away and you say nothing, your value is questionable.
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- Avraam Dectis Jul 29, 2020
  
  .
  I retract my previous assertion, Dr. Roubini did a fine job covering the rot: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/main-street-manifesto-for-covid19-crisis-by-nouriel-roubini-2020-06?utm_source=Project%20Syndicate%20Newsletter&utm_campaign=4bba15cfe5-sunday_newsletter_06_28_2020&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_73bad5b7d8-4bba15cfe5-93545437&mc_cid=4bba15cfe5&mc_eid=2c78ab1177&barrier=accesspaylog
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Michael Public Jul 29, 2020

I just can't swallow that we come into closer contacts with bats. Historically, people lived more in the countryside and wilderness than now. Besides, I live in the suburban part of a major city and every evening if I go outside I see several bats. They live everywhere. Much more likely is we go into caves more often to study bat diseases... but of course, we lack hard proof that that is how it all started.
- Blake Kelly Aug 5, 2020
  
  I think that it's not so much each person coming into contact with bats more, but there being a lot more people coming into contact with bats because there are a lot more people.
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- Lester Soss Jul 30, 2020
  
  Mr. Public. I think the issue isn't so much people coming in contact with bats, but rather people who come in contact with bats contacting other people. In other words, remote village peoples may have died from Ebola long before the epidemic, but it was their proximity to large numbers of people that created the spread. The bubonic plague may have been killing people in the east for centuries, but it was the traders carrying it to Europe that ended up killing 1/3 of the entire European population within 30 years,
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Jose Pichardo Jul 29, 2020

The risks remain - but I don't think I have ever read an optimistic piece from Mr Roubini.
- Don Ramble Aug 2, 2020
  
  ‘Optimistic’ is boring and doesn’t get people reading about...
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