Risque global et dividendes en 2011

NEW YORK – Les perspectives de l’économie mondiale en 2011 sont en partie définies par la persistance des tendances initiées en 2010. Celles-ci incluent : une reprise molle, en dessous de la tendance et en forme de U dans les économies avancées, dès lors que les entreprises et ménages continueront de réparer leur bilan ; une reprise plus forte, en forme de V dans les pays émergents, grâce aux meilleurs fondamentaux macroéconomiques, financiers et politiques. Cela permettra d’arriver à presque 4% de croissance annuelle pour l’économie mondiale, les économies avancées croissant à environ 2% et les économies émergentes autour des 6%.

Mais ce scénario contient de nombreux risques, aussi bien à la baisse qu’à la hausse. Du côté des premiers, un des risques les plus importants est une poursuite de la contagion financière en Europe, si les problèmes de la zone euro se répandent – et ceci semble probable – au Portugal, en Espagne et en Belgique. Etant donné le niveau actuel des ressources officielles à la disposition du Fonds Monétaire International et de l’Union Européenne, l’Espagne semble aujourd’hui trop importante à la fois pour être laissée tomber et pour être sauvée.

Les Etats-Unis représentent un autre risque à la baisse pour la croissance mondiale. En 2011, les USA seront confrontés à une rechute probable du marché immobilier, un taux de chômage élevé et une faible création de nouveaux emplois, une contraction persistante du crédit, la nécessité de combler les trous dans les budgets de l’état fédéral et des entités fédérées, ainsi qu’une augmentation des coûts de l’emprunt due à l’absence de consolidation fiscale du gouvernement fédéral. De plus, la croissance du crédit sera restreinte des deux côtés de l’Atlantique, car beaucoup d’institutions financières aux USA et en Europe restent réticentes à l’idée prêter leurs fonds.

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