2011年的全球风险和机遇

发自纽约——在某种程度上,2011年将会是一系列2010年趋势的延伸——发达经济体将经历一个贫血且落后于大势的U型复苏,因为企业和家庭都需要时间去修复自身的资产负债表;而得益于强大的宏观经济,财政和政策手段,新兴市场经济体将实现强劲的V型复苏。这意味着全球经济将在2011年取得大概4%的增长,其中发达经济体增长约2%,而新兴市场国家则有6%。

而在这种情况中,下行风险和上升机遇是同时存在的。在下行风险方面,其中一个最严峻的问题就是如果欧元区的问题向葡萄牙,西班牙和比利时蔓延(这种可能性极大),欧洲国家的财政危机将进一步恶化。考虑到国际货币基金组织以及欧盟当前掌握的官方资源总量,他们一方面无法承受西班牙财政崩溃的后果,另一方面却又无力拯救如此庞大的一个国家。

而美国则代表了全球增长的另一个下行风险。2011年的美国将可能遭遇住宅市场二次探底、高失业率新增职位不足、长期信用恐慌、各州和地方政府预算缺口增大,以及由于联邦政府财政状况不够稳定而导致的借贷成本急升。此外由于金融机构更倾向于规避风险,所以欧美两地的信贷增长将十分有限。

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