Bienvenue dans le XXIème siècle

BERLIN – L'année 2016 est loin d'avoir commencé dans le calme. La baisse des cours de la Bourse chinoise a déstabilisé les marchés du monde entier. Les économies émergentes semblent au point mort. Les prix du pétrole ont plongé, ce qui a déclenché une crise chez les producteurs de pétrole. La Corée du Nord cherche à en imposer avec sa technologie nucléaire. En Europe, la crise actuelle des réfugiés fait gonfler la vague malsaine du nationalisme, qui menace de déchirer l'Union européenne. Si l'on ajoute à cela les ambitions de néo-impérialistes de la Russie et la menace du terrorisme islamiste, il ne manque alors plus qu'un vol de comètes fende le ciel pour compléter le tableau de cette année, qui promet d'être une des plus funestes.

Le chaos semble s'amplifier de toutes parts. L'ordre international, forgé dans les flammes du XXème siècle semble être en voie de disparition et nous n'avons pas encore la moindre idée de ce qui va lui succéder.

Il n'est pas difficile de nommer les défis qui nous attendent : mondialisation, numérisation, changement climatique et ainsi de suite. Ce qui n'est pas clair, c'est le contexte d'où la réponse surgira, s'il y en a une. Dans quelles structures politiques, à l'initiative de qui et dans selon quelles règles ces questions seront négociées ? Ou bien, si la négociation s'avère impossible, faudra-t-il s'affronter pour les résoudre ?

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