¿Malestar mundial en 2006?

El todopoderoso consumidor americano tuvo otro año excepcional en 2005, con lo que ayudó a sostener el crecimiento económico mundial, aunque a un ritmo inferior que en 2004. Como en los últimos años, su consumo correspondió a su nivel de ingresos o lo superó y en 2005 los Estados Unidos en conjunto se gastaron bastante por encima de sus medios y tomaron dinero prestado del resto del mundo a un ritmo febril: más de 2.000 millones de dólares al día.

Hace un año, la mayoría de los expertos sostuvo que era insostenible. Evidentemente, sí que lo fue, al menos por un año más, pero no por ello deja de ser cierto que lo que es insostenible no se sostendrá, cosa que entraña grandes riesgos para los Estados Unidos y la economía mundial en 2006.

Dos sorpresas económicas prolongaron los buenos tiempos en 2005. En primer lugar, mientras la Reserva Federal de los EE.UU. siguió subiendo los tipos de interés a corto plazo, los tipos a largo plazo no aumentaron al mismo ritmo, lo que permitió que siguieran subiendo los precios de las viviendas. Fue un factor de la mayor importancia para sostener el crecimiento mundial, pues en los últimos años el sector inmobiliario ha propulsado el buen funcionamiento de la mayor economía del mundo, con lo que se han refinanciado las hipotecas y se ha gastado parte de los fondos obtenidos y los altos precios han propiciado más construcciones.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/MDoj6dI/es;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now