2006,全球隐忧重重?

2005 年,无所不能的美国消费者又度过了胜利的一年,尽管增长步伐慢于 2004 年,但总算还是帮助维持住了全球经济的继续增长。近年来,美国消费者的消费水平都相当于或高于其收入水平,美国整个国家的开支也远远大于其财力。2005 年,美国以狂热的步伐向世界其它国家借款,每天超过 20 亿美元。

一年前,多数权威评论人士辩论说这种现象不可能持续下去。但显然这种现象确实是持续下去了,至少多持续了一年。但无论如何,不可持续的东西是不能持续下去的,这点千真万确,所以这给 2006 年的美国和全球经济带来了巨大的风险。

2005 年两大出人意表的经济事件延长了这种好日子。首先,尽管联邦储备局继续提高短期利率,但长期利率却没有随之协调增长,这使得房价继续上涨。在维持全球增长方面,房价上涨具有至关重要的作用,因为近年来,全球最大经济强国的表现是依靠房地产维持下去的:个人将自己的住房抵押进行再贷款,并将由此而来的部分收入用于支出;高房价也会带来更多的建筑项目。

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