توعك عالمي في عام 2006؟

كان العام 2005 عاماً فريداً آخر بالنسبة للمستهلك الأميركي "صاحب القدرة المطلقة"، حيث ساعد في تعزيز النمو الاقتصادي العالمي، ولو بمعدلات أبطأ من عام 2004. وكما كان الأمر خلال السنوات الأخيرة، فقد بلغ استهلاكه حدود دخله أو تجاوزها، كما تجاوز إنفاق الولايات المتحدة ككل حدود مواردها المالية على نحو ملحوظ، فاقترضت من بقية بلدان العالم بصورة محمومة في عام 2005 ـ أكثر من ملياري دولار يومياً.

منذ عام مضى كان المنتقدون لهذه السياسة يرون أنها غير قابلة للاستمرار. ولكن من الواضح أنها كانت قادرة على الاستمرار لعام واحد آخر على الأقل. ولكن تظل هناك حقيقة ثابتة، ألا وهي أن كل ما لا يمكن الإبقاء عليه لن يستمر، وهو ما يشكل خطراً كبيراً على اقتصاد الولايات المتحدة والعالم في العام 2006.

أدى وقوع مفاجأتين اقتصاديتين إلى إطالة أمد الأوقات الطيبة التي شهدها عام 2005. كانت الأولى عدم ارتفاع أسعار الفائدة على القروض طويلة الأجل على الرغم من استمرار بنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الأميركي في رفع أسعار الفائدة على القروض القصيرة الأجل، الأمر الذي سمح لأسعار المساكن بالاستمرار في الصعود. ولقد كان هذا على قدر كبير من الأهمية بالنسبة لدعم النمو العالمي، حيث كان أداء أضخم اقتصاد في العالم يعتمد على العقارات طيلة السنوات الأخيرة، وكان الأفراد يعيدون تمويل رهنهم العقاري وينفقون بعض العائدات، وحيث أدت الأسعار المرتفعة إلى المزيد من البناء.

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