Глобальный дисбаланс без слез

КЕМБРИДЖ. Врачи давно знают, что улучшению здоровья или его ухудшению способствует не только то, как много мы едим, а скорее то, что мы едим. Таким же образом, экономисты давно заметили, что для стран, которые с жадностью набрасываются на приток капитала, существует большая разница между долговыми инструментами и инвестициями в ценные бумаги, включая акции и прямые иностранные инвестиции.

Поэтому, поскольку стратеги и эксперты отгораживаются от устойчивых чрезмерных торговых дисбалансов, нам нужно признать, что реальная проблема кроется в непомерной концентрации долга. Если бы правительства стран “Большой двадцатки” отступили и спросили себя, как направить большую часть дисбалансов в инвестиции в ценные бумаги, мировая финансовая система, которая бы возникла, могла бы быть намного более здоровой, чем предрасположенная к кризису система, которую мы имеем сейчас.

К несчастью, мы находимся очень далеко от того идеального мира, в котором финансовые рынки эффективно разделяют риски. Из приблизительно 200 триллионов долларов финансовых активов сегодня, почти три четверти являются в некоторой степени долговыми инструментами, включая банковские займы, корпоративные облигации и государственные ценные бумаги. Рынок производных ценных бумаг, конечно, помогает распространять риски более широко, чем предполагает это поверхностное вычисление, но в основном это утверждение верно.

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