Squilibri globali senza lacrime

CAMBRIDGE – I dottori sostengono da tempo che per il nostro stato di salute non è importante solo quanto si mangia ma cosa si mangia. In modo analogo, gli economisti notano da tempo come nei paesi che si rimpinzano di afflussi di capitale vi sia una grande differenza tra strumenti di debito e investimenti “equity like”, tra cui titoli e investimenti diretti esteri.

I policymaker e gli esperti si stanno scagliando contro i forti squilibri commerciali, ma dobbiamo riconoscere che i veri problemi affondano le proprie radici nelle eccessive concentrazioni di debito. Se i governi del G20 fossero obiettivi e si chiedessero in che modo incanalare una fetta più sostanziosa degli squilibri in strumenti “equity like”, il sistema finanziario globale potrebbe essere davvero più robusto dell’attuale sistema così incline alla crisi.

Sfortunatamente, siamo molto lontani dal mondo idealizzato in cui i mercati finanziari condividono il rischio in modo efficiente. Dei circa 200mila miliardi di dollari investiti oggi in asset finanziari globali, quasi tre quarti sono sostanzialmente strumenti di debito, inclusi prestiti bancari, obbligazioni societarie e titoli di stato. Il mercato dei derivati aiuta certamente a distribuire il rischio in modo più efficace di quanto non preveda tale calcolo superficiale, ma il discorso non cambia.

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