简单易懂的全球不平衡

发自剑桥——医生们早就意识到决定一个人健康状况的并不是你吃了多少,而是你吃了什么。同理,经济学家也早就知道对那些充斥着大量资本流入的国家来说,债务工具和权益类投资(包括证券与外国直接投资在内)是大不相同的。

因此,当政策制定者及学者们对持续过大的贸易不平衡状况口诛笔伐之时,我们需要意识到真正的问题其实是来自于比例过高的债务。如果20国集团(G20)政府能跳出迷局并自问如何才能将不平衡中的更大部分变成权益类工具,那么因此而产生的全球金融系统将比我们目前这个危机重重的系统更加健全可靠。

不幸的是,我们距离这个金融市场有效分担风险的理想世界还很远。在当今大概200万亿的全球金融总资产之中,约有3/4都是各种形式的债务工具,包括银行贷款,企业债券以及政府债券。与这个粗略的计算相比,金融衍生品市场当然会将风险变得更加分散,但基本情况还是不变的。

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