اختلال عالمي من دون دموع

كمبريدج ـ إن الأطباء يعرفون منذ فترة طويلة أن ما قد يساهم في تعزيز صحة المرء أو الإضرار بها ليس كم ما يتناوله من طعام فحسب، بل وأيضاً نوعية الأغذية التي يتناولها. وعلى نحو مماثل، لاحظ خبراء الاقتصاد منذ زمن بعيد الفارق الضخم بين أدوات الدين والاستثمار في الأسهم، بما في ذلك الأوراق المالية والاستثمار المباشر الأجنبي، بالنسبة للبلدان المتخمة بتدفقات رأس المال.

لذا، فمع احتجاج صناع القرار السياسي والخبراء على الاختلال التجاري المتضخم المستدام، يتعين علينا أن ندرك أن المشكلة الحقيقية تضرب بجذورها في التركيزات المفرطة للدين. وإذا فكرت حكومات مجموعة العشرين قليلاً وسألت نفسها كيف يمكنها توجيه حصة أضخم كثيراً من اختلال التوازن في أدوات أشبه بالأسهم، فإن النظام المالي العالمي الذي نشأ قد يكون أكثر قوة من النظام المعرض للأزمات الذي نتبناه الآن.

ولكن من المؤسف أننا بعيدون تماماً عن العالم المثالي حيث تتقاسم الأسواق المالية المخاطر بكفاءة. فمن بين ما يقرب من مائتي تريليون دولار من الأصول المالية العالمية اليوم، سنجد أن ثلاثة أرباع هذه الأصول تقريباً في هيئة أداة ما من أدوات الدين، بما في ذلك القروض المصرفية، وسندات الشركات، والأوراق المالية الحكومية. لا شك أن أسواق المشتقات المالية تساعد في توزيع المخاطر على نطاق أوسع مما توحي به هذه الحسابات السطحية، ولكن النقطة الأساسية تظل قائمة.

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