Businesspeople walking Leon Neal/Getty Images

¿Saliendo del populismo?

CAMBRIDGE – Tras nueve años deprimentes de revisar siempre a la baja las proyecciones de PIB, los funcionarios de política macroeconómica en todo el mundo no salen del asombro: pese a la oleada de agitación política impulsada por los populistas, en 2017 el crecimiento global va camino de superar las expectativas.

No es un caso de excepcionalismo estadounidense. Si bien el crecimiento en este país es muy sólido, la diferencia entre las previsiones y la realidad en Europa son aun mayores. Incluso hay buenas noticias para los mercados emergentes, que a pesar de las inminentes subas de tasas de la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos, ahora se encuentran con un contexto mejor al que adaptarse.

La explicación breve de la reflación global es bastante fácil de entender. Las crisis financieras sistémicas y profundas provocan recesiones profundas y prolongadas. Como Carmen Reinhart y yo predijimos hace una década (y numerosos académicos corroboraron después con nuestros datos), en esas circunstancias no es inusual que haya períodos de entre 6 y 8 años de crecimiento muy lento. Es verdad que subsisten muchos problemas, como la debilidad de los bancos en Europa, el exceso de endeudamiento de los gobiernos municipales en China y una regulación financiera innecesariamente complicada en Estados Unidos. Sin embargo, las semillas de un período sostenido de crecimiento más sólido ya están plantadas.

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