Businesspeople walking Leon Neal/Getty Images

Crescere Oltre il Populismo?

CAMBRIDGE – Dopo nove tristi anni di ridimensionamenti delle loro previsioni sul PIL, i responsabili delle politiche macroeconomiche di tutto il mondo scuotono il capo increduli: nonostante l’ondata di tumulti politici a propulsione populista, nel 2017 la crescita globale è in effetti destinata a superare le aspettative.

Non si tratta solo dell’ “eccezionalismo americano”. Sebbene la crescita degli Stati Uniti sia molto forte, l’Europa ha superato le aspettative in misura maggiore. Ci sono notizie positive anche per i mercati emergenti, che sono ancora in allerta per i rialzi dei tassi da parte della Federal Reserve USA, ma hanno raggiunto condizioni contestuali migliori cui adeguarsi.

La lunga vicenda che sta dietro alla reflazione globale è abbastanza facile da comprendere. Crisi finanziarie profonde e sistemiche portano a recessioni profonde e prolungate. Come Carmen Reinhart ed io abbiamo previsto dieci anni fa (e come molti altri studiosi hanno convalidato con forza utilizzando i nostri dati), periodi di 6-8 anni di crescita molto lenta, non sono affatto insoliti in tali circostanze. È vero che molti problemi rimangono, come la debolezza delle banche europee, l’eccessivo livello di leva finanziaria dei governi locali cinesi, e l’inutile complessità della regolamentazione finanziaria americana. Ciò nonostante, si sono piantati i semi per un lungo periodo di crescita più robusta.

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