Businesspeople walking Leon Neal/Getty Images

Vyrosteme z populizmu?

CAMBRIDGE – Po devíti bezútěšných letech snižování prognóz vývoje HDP tvůrci makroekonomických politik po celém světě nevěřícně kroutí hlavou: globální růst v roce 2017 navzdory populisty vyvolané vlně politického pozdvižení směřuje k překonání odhadů.

Nejedná se jen o americkou výjimečnost. Třebaže růst USA je velmi silný, Evropa předčí očekávání ještě víc. Dokonce se objevují zprávy příznivé pro rozvíjející se trhy, které se sice stále připravují na náraz vzestupů úrokových sazeb Federálního rezervního systému USA, ale zlepšují se okolnosti, za nichž budou muset provádět korekce.

Obecný příběh, z něhož globální reflace vychází, je dost jednoduchý na pochopení. Hluboké, systémové finanční krize vedou k hlubokým, vleklým recesím. Jak jsme s Carmen Reinhartovou predikovali před deseti lety (a řada dalších akademiků od té doby za využití našich dat potvrdila), období 6-8 let velice pomalého růstu nejsou za takových okolností vůbec neobvyklá. Pravda, přetrvává mnoho problémů, včetně slabých bank v Evropě, předlužených místních samospráv v Číně a zbytečně komplikované finanční regulace ve Spojených státech. Nicméně bylo zaseto vytrvalé období solidnějšího růstu.

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