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用增长摆脱民粹主义?

坎布里奇—在经历了九个连年调低GDP预期的沮丧年头之后,全球宏观经济政策制定者难以置信地摇起了头:尽管在政治方面出现了一连串民粹主义风潮,但2017年全球增长实际上好于预期。

这不仅仅是美国例外论。尽管美国的增长十分强劲,但欧洲也比预期表现更好。甚至新兴市场也有好消息,它们仍在为美联储的升息做准备,但对于即将到来的调整,它们已经有了更好的底气。

全球再通胀背后的大故事很容易理解。系统性的深度金融危机导致了漫长的深度衰退。卡门·莱因哈特(Carmen Reinhart)和我在十年前预测道(此后其他很多学者也使用我们的数据证实了我们的预测),在这样的环境中,为期6—8年的极低速增长丝毫不算反常。诚然,许多问题仍然存在,包括欧洲银行的疲软,中国地方政府的过度负债,以及美国金融监管的毫无必要的复杂程度。尽管如此,持续的稳固增长时期的种子已经种下。

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