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La caída del crecimiento global

NUEVA YORK – Recientemente, el Fondo Monetario Internacional y otros organismos revisaron a la baja (una vez más) sus pronósticos de crecimiento global. No es extraño: hoy la economía mundial tiene pocas luminarias, y muchas de ellas se apagan velozmente.

Entre las economías avanzadas, Estados Unidos lleva dos trimestres con 1% de crecimiento promedio. La extensión de la flexibilización monetaria reforzó una recuperación cíclica en la eurozona, pero en la mayoría de los países el crecimiento potencial sigue muy por debajo de 1%. En Japón, la “Abenomics” se está quedando sin fuerza; la economía viene frenando desde mediados de 2015 y ya está cerca de la recesión. En el Reino Unido, la incertidumbre por el referendo de junio sobre la permanencia en la Unión Europea provoca que las principales empresas difieran la toma de personal y la inversión de capital. Y otras economías avanzadas (como Canadá, Australia y Noruega) se enfrentan a dificultades por el abaratamiento de los commodities.

Para la mayoría de las economías emergentes las cosas no andan mucho mejor. De los cinco países del grupo BRICS, dos (Brasil y Rusia) están en recesión; uno (Sudáfrica) apenas crece; otro (China) atraviesa una abrupta desaceleración estructural; a la única que le está yendo bien es a la India, solo porque (en palabras del presidente de su banco central, Raghuram Rajan), en el país de los ciegos, el tuerto es rey. Muchos otros mercados emergentes también se frenaron desde 2013, debido a malas condiciones externas, fragilidad económica (derivada de unas políticas monetaria, fiscal y crediticia laxas en los años buenos) y, muchas veces, el abandono de las reformas promercado y la adopción de variantes del capitalismo de Estado.

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