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全球增长恐慌

纽约—国际货币基金组织(IMF)和其他机构最近调低了全球增长预测——又一次这么干了。毫不奇怪:世界经济几乎没有亮点——并且许多方面在迅速恶化。

发达经济体中,美国前两季度增长率平均只有1%。进一步货币宽松刺激了欧元区周期性复苏,但大部分国家潜在增长率仍显著低于1%。在日本,“安倍经济学”动力告急,2015年年中以来的经济减速眼看就要演变为衰退。在英国,围绕6月是否继续保留欧盟成员资格的全民公决的不确定性导致企业冻结了招聘和资本支出。而其他发达经济体——如加拿大、澳大利亚和挪威——面临大宗商品价格低迷的不利局面。

新兴经济体的情况也好不到哪里去。在金砖五国中,两国(巴西和俄罗斯)进入了衰退,一国(南非)几乎没有增长,另一国(中国)正在经历急剧的结构性减速,而印度表现出色只是因为——用其央行行长拉古兰·拉詹(Raghuram Rajan)的话说——在瞎子王国,独眼龙就可以称王。许多其他新兴市场自2013年以来也经历了衰退,原因是外部环境疲软、经济脆弱(拜好光景年份宽松的货币、财政和信用政策所赐),以及(常常)从市场改革转向各种国家资本主义。

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