Lehman Bros Michael Nagle/Stringer


发自苏黎世——八十五年前的五月,Credi Anstalt这个当时奥地利最大的银行宣告破产。随后两个月,埃及、德国、匈牙利、拉脱维亚、波兰,罗马尼亚和土耳其等国的银行都爆发了挤兑。八月时美国也爆发了银行业恐慌,尽管这场恐慌很可能源自其国内因素。九月英国境内的银行相继遭遇大额取款。 这场历史事件与美国雷曼兄弟投资银行于2008年的破产拥有极大的相似性——对于理解今天的金融风险也是至关重要的。

首先,一切随后爆发的全球金融动荡的始作俑者既不是Credi Anstalt也不是雷曼兄弟。这些崩溃以及紧接着产生的麻烦都是同一个问题的表象:脆弱的银行体系。

在1931年的奥地利,问题的根源是第一次世界大战奥匈帝国的解体,1920年代初的恶性通货膨胀,以及银行业为工业部门承担了过度的风险。在Credi Anstalt崩溃的时候全世界实际已经陷入衰退整整两年了,一些国家的银行系统弱不禁风,紧张态势极易跨越国界传播,而金本位制度对中央银行行动能力的限制则加剧了金融体系的脆弱性。

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