¿Un regreso al 2008?

NUEVA YORK – La pregunta que me hacen con más frecuencia en estos días es la siguiente: ¿Regresamos al 2008 y a otra crisis financiera y recesión global?

Mi respuesta es un franco no, pero aclaro que el reciente episodio de turbulencia del mercado financiero global probablemente sea más serio que cualquier período de volatilidad y comportamiento de aversión al riesgo desde 2009. Esto es porque hoy existen por lo menos siete causas de riesgo de catástrofe global, a diferencia de los factores únicos -la crisis de la eurozona, el episodio del "taper tantrum" (cuando la Reserva Federal anunció una posible reducción anticipada de sus compras de bonos), una posible salida griega de la eurozona y un aterrizaje económico forzoso en China- que han alimentado la volatilidad en los últimos años.

Primero, los temores sobre un aterrizaje forzoso en China y su potencial impacto en el mercado bursátil y el valor del renminbi han regresado con ganas. Si bien es más probable que China tenga un aterrizaje con sacudidas más que forzoso, todavía deben calmarse las preocupaciones de los inversores debido a la desaceleración actual del crecimiento y la continua fuga de capitales.

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