Wiedersehen mit 2008?

NEW YORK – Die Frage, die mir dieser Tage am häufigsten gestellt wird, lautet: Sind wir wieder im Jahr 2008 und stehen vor einer neuen globalen Finanzkrise und Rezession?

Meine Antwort darauf ist ein eindeutiges Nein, doch die jüngste Episode globaler Turbulenzen an den Finanzmärkten dürfte gravierender sein als jede Phase der Schwankungsanfälligkeit und Risikoaversion seit 2009. Der Grund ist, dass es im Gegensatz zu Einzelfaktoren, die die Schwankungen in den letzten Jahren angeheizt haben – der Krise in der Eurozone, dem „Taper Tantrum“ der US Federal Reserve, dem möglichen Austritts Griechenlands aus der Eurozone und einer harten wirtschaftlichen Landung in China –, derzeit mindestens sieben Quellen globaler Extremrisiken gibt.

Erstens sind die Befürchtungen über eine harte Landung in China und deren wahrscheinliche Auswirkungen auf den Aktienmarkt und den Wert des Renminbi mit Wucht zurückgekehrt. Auch wenn China eher eine holperige als eine harte Landung erleben dürfte, müssen sich die durch den aktuellen Wachstumsabschwung und die anhaltende Kapitalflucht bedingten Sorgen der Anleger erst noch beruhigen.

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