2016, l'année de tous les dangers ?

NEW-YORK – La question que l'on me pose le plus souvent actuellement est celle-ci : sommes-nous de retour en 2008, avec une nouvelle crise financière mondiale et une récession ?

Ma réponse est clairement Non. Néanmoins, le récent épisode de volatilité des marchés financiers mondiaux est probablement plus grave que tout autre épisode analogue et que toute autre phase d'aversion aux risques depuis 2009. Cette situation tient à au moins sept sources de risque extrême présents maintenant au niveau de la planète, alors que seuls des facteurs de risque isolés alimentaient la volatilité au cours de ces dernières années (la crise de la zone euro, la poussée de fièvre autour de la Réserve fédérale, un éventuelle sortie de la Grèce de la zone euro et un atterrissage brutal de l'économie chinoise). Quelles sont ces sources de risque ?

1) Les inquiétudes liées à la valeur du yuan, ainsi qu'à un atterrissage brutal de la Chine et à ses conséquences probables sur la Bourse font leur retour en force. L'atterrissage chinois sera plus probablement chaotique que brutal, mais du fait du ralentissement de la croissance et de la fuite des capitaux qui se prolongent, cela n'apaise en rien l'inquiétude des investisseurs.

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