重温2008?

纽约—最近我最常被问道的问题是:我们回到了2008年,将迎来又一场全球金融危机和衰退吗?

我的回答直截了当:不。但最近的全球金融市场动荡可能比2009年以来的所有波动和避险时期都要大。这是因为,目前至少有七大全球尾部风险源——而不只像近几年那样只有一些单一因素——欧元区危机、美联储的“削减恐慌”(taper tantrum)、希腊可能退出欧元区以及中国经济硬着陆等——助长波动性。

首先,对中国硬着陆及其对股市和人民币价值的可能影响卷土重来。与硬着陆相比,中国更有可能发生“颠簸”着陆,但投资者的担忧并未就此平息,因为增长减速在持续,资本外逃也没有停止。

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