新常态的两大亮点

雅加达—关于世界竞技状态的传统智慧大概是这样的:自2007—2008年金融危机爆发以来,发达世界在挣扎着复苏,只有美国有能力做出调整。新兴国家表现更好,但它们也最近也开始步入低迷。这一观点认为,在恶劣的经济环境下,唯一的赢家是富人,这导致了不平等性一飞冲天。

这一情景看上去无懈可击——但若做一番更仔细的考察就能发现它完全是错误的。

从经济增长开始。据国际货币基金组织(IMF),本世纪第一个十年,全球年平均增长率为3.7%,而20世纪80和90年代为3.3%。在过去四年中,平均年增长为3.4%。这比人们期望的增长低得多;2010年,我预测在未来十年,世界将以4.1%的年增长率增长。但从历史标准看,3.4%也远不是什么灾难。

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