Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images

Арсеналы для борьбы с рецессией исчерпаны?

СТЭНФОРД – Согласно экономическим прогнозам на 2017 год, в мировой экономике сохранится неустойчивое положение, а рост экономики в большинстве стран и регионов будет низким. Среди явных экономических проблем – слабость европейских банков, перекосы на китайском рынке недвижимости, политическая неопределённость в странах Запада, рекордно высокий уровень государственного и частного долга (который, по подсчётам Международного валютного фонда, достиг 225% ВВП), а также нежелание  обременённых долгами Греции и Португалии выполнять программу МВФ.

Дополнительные глобальные экономические риски, например, резкий перебой на нефтяном рынке, который может привести к росту цен, не столь очевидны, а следовательно, привлекают меньше внимания. Экономисты называют такие события «шоками» как раз потому, что они происходят неожиданно и могут иметь далекоидущие последствия.

Из-за беспрецедентно длительного периода политики монетарного стимулирования и значительного роста госдолга у правительств осталось мало инструментов для борьбы со следующим экономическим спадом, когда (без всяких если) он наступит. Следующая рецессия будет, наверное, не такой тяжёлой, как предыдущая, однако развитые страны намного лучше к ней подготовятся, если проведут поэтапную нормализацию монетарной политики и – одновременно – бюджетную консолидацию.

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