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Stimulation budgétaire et risque économique

STANFORD – Selon les prévisions économiques, en 2017 l'économie mondiale restera fragile et la croissance anémique. Les causes les plus visibles en sont la faiblesse des banques européennes, le déséquilibre du marché immobilier chinois, les incertitudes politiques dans les pays occidentaux et la réticence de la Grèce et du Portugal, tous deux lourdement endettés, à accepter les programmes du FMI. S'y ajoute la dette mondiale publique et privée qui atteint un record en culminant à 225% du PIB mondial selon le FMI.

Par contre les risques économiques moins apparents (par exemple une crise affectant le marché du pétrole qui pourrait entraîner les prix à la hausse) ne retiennent guère l'attention. Les économistes parlent alors de choc, parce que ces événements sont inattendus et lourds de conséquences.

En raison de mesures de stimulation monétaire à long terme et de dettes publiques sans précédent, les Etats ne sont pas en bonne position pour faire face à la prochaine crise économique quand elle arrivera (et non pas si elle arrive). La prochaine récession ne sera probablement pas aussi sévère que la précédente, mais les pays avancés y seront bien mieux préparés s'ils entreprennent simultanément et graduellement normalisation monétaire et consolidation budgétaire.

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