Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images

对抗衰退的手段穷尽了吗?

发自斯坦福——对2017年的经济预测预计全球经济将持续疲软,同时大多数国家和地区的增长也不甚理想。其中显而易见的经济问题包括欧洲银行抗风险能力低下,中国房地产市场过度扭曲,西方政治不确定性,史上最高的私人和公共债务——据国际货币基金组织测算相当于GDP的225%,以及负债累累却又不愿遵照基金组织方案行事的希腊和葡萄牙。

其他全球经济风险——例如可能推动价格上涨的重大石油市场危机——则不甚明显,人们对此的关注也较少。而经济学家之所以将这类事件称为“冲击”,恰恰是因为它们总是意外爆发并可能带来深远的影响。

前所未有的长期性货币刺激政策和公共债务负担的大幅攀升必将使政府在应对下一次(必定会来的)经济衰退时捉襟见肘。下一次经济衰退或许不会像上一次那样糟糕,但如果发达经济体能实施逐步的货币政策正常化和财政整顿,它们就不会那么被动。

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