全球失衡颂

新加坡—最近几周,关于大幅增加全球投资尤其是基础设施投资的声音十分响亮。前美国财政部张劳伦斯·萨默斯(Lawrence Summers)主张公共投资是真正的免费午餐,IMF总裁克里斯汀·拉加德(Christine Lagarde)指出如果世界经济要想“克服新平庸”就必须提振投资。

这些评论认为世界处于投资不足状态已有多年。事实上,根据IMF数据,当前全球总投资率为世界GDP的24.5%,接近长期区间的上限。问题不在于总投资不足,而在于中国一国占总投资规模比例过大这一事实。

中国占世界投资比从1995年的4.3%飙升至今年的25.8%(估计值)。相反,美国的比重在1985年见顶(36%),如今下降至不足18%。日本的比重下降更加剧烈,从1993年的峰值(22%)减少到2013年的5.7%。

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