Amusement park ride balloons Raging Wire/Flickr

好日子已经过去了吗?

发自斯坦福——在2008至2009年大衰退之前的25年间,美国分别经历了两次温和短期衰退以及两次强劲长期的增长。在全球范围内,收入迅速上升;通胀并不明显;股票市场一片欣欣向荣。此外,1980年代早期那场从上一场大型衰退中走出来的经济复苏则带来了持续1/4个世纪的,前所未有的强劲稳定宏观经济繁荣。但如今,回归增长之路却比以往更加艰难。

自大萧条以来美国经济的复苏其实不是持续的,其中存在着反复的涨涨跌跌。事实上,在近十年来美国从未连续三个季度实现3%的增长。虽然低油价对消费者有所裨益,但这一收益在某种程度上被更低的能源投资所抵消,而更强势美元所产生的影响则不断加大。

而面临这种状况的可不仅仅是美国,虽然大多数欧洲经济体如今都在低油价和货币贬值的帮助下恢复了增长,但经济扩张之路依旧疲软。即便是那些本应在未来几年承担全球增长引擎任务的主要新兴经济体都陷入挣扎之中,中国和印度的经济增长幅度下滑,巴西和俄罗斯都出现了收缩。

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