Amusement park ride balloons Raging Wire/Flickr

好日子已经过去了吗?

发自斯坦福——在2008至2009年大衰退之前的25年间,美国分别经历了两次温和短期衰退以及两次强劲长期的增长。在全球范围内,收入迅速上升;通胀并不明显;股票市场一片欣欣向荣。此外,1980年代早期那场从上一场大型衰退中走出来的经济复苏则带来了持续1/4个世纪的,前所未有的强劲稳定宏观经济繁荣。但如今,回归增长之路却比以往更加艰难。

自大萧条以来美国经济的复苏其实不是持续的,其中存在着反复的涨涨跌跌。事实上,在近十年来美国从未连续三个季度实现3%的增长。虽然低油价对消费者有所裨益,但这一收益在某种程度上被更低的能源投资所抵消,而更强势美元所产生的影响则不断加大。

而面临这种状况的可不仅仅是美国,虽然大多数欧洲经济体如今都在低油价和货币贬值的帮助下恢复了增长,但经济扩张之路依旧疲软。即便是那些本应在未来几年承担全球增长引擎任务的主要新兴经济体都陷入挣扎之中,中国和印度的经济增长幅度下滑,巴西和俄罗斯都出现了收缩。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/JPvR1gV/zh;
  1. China corruption Isaac Lawrence/Getty Images

    The Next Battle in China’s War on Corruption

    • Chinese President Xi Jinping knows well the threat that corruption poses to the authority of the Communist Party of China and the state it controls. 
    • But moving beyond Xi's anti-corruption purge to build robust and lasting anti-graft institutions will not be easy, owing to enduring opportunities for bureaucratic capture.
  2. Italy unemployed demonstration SalvatoreEsposito/Barcroftimages / Barcroft Media via Getty Images

    Putting Europe’s Long-Term Unemployed Back to Work

    Across the European Union, millions of people who are willing and able to work have been unemployed for a year or longer, at great cost to social cohesion and political stability. If the EU is serious about stopping the rise of populism, it will need to do more to ensure that labor markets are working for everyone.

  3. Latin America market Federico Parra/Getty Images

    A Belt and Road for the Americas?

    In a time of global uncertainty, a vision of “made in the Americas” prosperity provides a unifying agenda for the continent. If implemented, the US could reassert its historical leadership among a group of countries that share its fundamental values, as well as an interest in inclusive economic growth and rising living standards.

  4. Startup office Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    How Best to Promote Research and Development

    Clearly, there is something appealing about a start-up-based innovation strategy: it feels democratic, accessible, and so California. But it is definitely not the only way to boost research and development, or even the main way, and it is certainly not the way most major innovations in the US came about during the twentieth century.

  5. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.