stock market Bryan R. Smith/Getty Images

Risiken für eine globale Erholung

NEW YORK – Während der vergangenen zwei Jahre ist die Weltwirtschaft gewachsen. Aber sie fluktuierte zwischen Phasen rapiden Wachstums und solchen der Entschleunigung. Zwei Episoden insbesondere haben während dieser Zeit einen Rückgang der Aktienkurse in den USA und weltweit von rund 10% verursacht. Zeichnet sich hier ein Muster ab, oder wird sich die unbeständige globale Erholung stabilisieren?

Die erste Episode kam im August/September 2015, als viele Beobachter fürchteten, dass die chinesische Wirtschaft auf eine harte Landung zusteuere. Die zweite Episode im Januar/Februar 2016 rührte ebenfalls aus Befürchtungen über China her. Doch die Anleger waren zugleich zunehmend besorgt über das sich verlangsamende US-Wachstum, einbrechende Öl- und Rohstoffpreise, schnelle Zinserhöhungen seitens der US Federal Reserve und eine unkonventionelle Geldpolitik mit Negativzinsen in Europa und Japan.

Jede Entschleunigungsepisode dauerte etwa zwei Monate, und dann kehrte sich die Korrektur der Aktienpreise um. Die Befürchtungen der Anleger verwirklichten sich nicht, und die Notenbanken begannen, ihre Geldpolitik zu lockern oder setzten (im Falle der Fed) ihre Zinserhöhungen aus.

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