stock market Bryan R. Smith/Getty Images

L'économie mondiale sur la voie de la reprise ?

NEW-YORK – Depuis deux ans l'économie mondiale se porte mieux, pourtant elle oscille entre des phases de croissance rapide et de décélération. Au cours de cette période, deux épisodes notamment ont provoqué une chute des Bourses mondiales d'environ 10%. S'agit-il d'un cycle qui apparaît ou bien simplement d'un à-coup dans le redressement de l'économie mondiale ?

Le premier épisode a eu lieu en août-septembre 2015, au moment où beaucoup d'observateurs craignaient un atterrissage brutal de l'économie chinoise. Le deuxième, en janvier-février 2016, concernait aussi la Chine. Mais les investisseurs craignaient également un arrêt de la croissance aux USA, un effondrement du prix du pétrole et des matières premières, une hausse rapide des taux d'intérêt américains décidée par la Réserve fédérale (Fed) et une politique non orthodoxe de taux d'intérêt négatifs en Europe et au Japon.

Ces phases de décélération ont duré environ deux mois, jusqu'au moment où le mouvement de la Bourse s'est inversé. La crainte des investisseurs s'est révélée injustifiée, tandis que les banques centrales ont entamé leur politique de relâchement monétaire et que la Fed a retardé le moment d'augmenter les taux d'intérêt.

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